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acroyearThe Infamous Brad - Spotting Bubbles:
Simon Johnson said it succinctly in an online Q&A on the Washington Post website today:One of Hicks's better essays, I think.
"This is the key issue. Spotting bubbles is very hard - one person says 'bubble' and another says 'new fundamentals are emerging' ...."See that? That right there? That's number one. That is how you spot bubbles.
The single most reliable way to predict a bubble is when the business press, passing along what mainstream economists are telling them, say that the reason you can believe that we're not in a bubble is that "new fundamentals are emerging," or in other words, "the old rules don't apply any more because (fill in the blank)."
