i've added the numbers...
Nov. 2nd, 2004 11:51 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
acroyearon the assumption (now confirmed by ABC anyways) that Bush would take FL, which I called 2 weeks ago, OHIO will be the deciding factor.
even if Kerry takes everything he's currently leading in (NV (stil close), IA, WI (still close), MI, NH (still close)), he'll still only have 268 without OH.
on the other hand, Bush won't win without OH either (258 if you add CO, NM, AK, HI), unless he gets BOTH WI AND NV (bringing him to 273), so we're going to be going for a while whilst all the lawsuits and late night counting (thanks to the long lines that appearantly are STILL long in columbus, cincinatti, and cleveland, all of which are likely to add votes to kerry) take place.
unless something dramatic changes in Colorado (there's still half of Denver to report in) AND Kerry holds onto Wisconsin, we're down to one state, surrounded in a quagmire of lawsuits, deciding everything.
Now, Kerry having WI AND either CO, HI, or AK, leads to a definite win with between 272 and 277 possible, but CO is going to be tough and I personally wouldn't bet on it (actually just since i typed it, Bush's lead in the counting jumped and MSNBC just called it), nor Alaska given that there are more people who think there will be jobs and money if big oil gets their way against the environmentally conscience. Hawaii is hard to tell in that neither candidate had more than 50% (or actually more than 46%) in the last pre-election polls.
--
updated numbers (12:45am):
Bush -- 246 + 5 (NM) + 3 (AK) = 254 -- Ohio makes his win a given.
Kerry -- 206 + 34 (IA, MN, MI) = 240 -- Ohio brings him to 260, meaning he needs 3 of the 4 states he's leading in but its too close to call: HI (4), NV (5), NH (4), WI (10) will bring him up to 263
and that's that. Bush wins with OH, *or* he needs WI and two other small states that kerry's leading in...
HOWEVER, THE TIE IS STILL POSSIBLE: Bush getting WI + only NV only gets him 269, and if OH to Kerry, and it all goes to the House.
at any rate, its still like I quoted a 'Post editorial 5 months ago: sit down, shut up, and watch Ohio pick the president.
even if Kerry takes everything he's currently leading in (NV (stil close), IA, WI (still close), MI, NH (still close)), he'll still only have 268 without OH.
on the other hand, Bush won't win without OH either (258 if you add CO, NM, AK, HI), unless he gets BOTH WI AND NV (bringing him to 273), so we're going to be going for a while whilst all the lawsuits and late night counting (thanks to the long lines that appearantly are STILL long in columbus, cincinatti, and cleveland, all of which are likely to add votes to kerry) take place.
unless something dramatic changes in Colorado (there's still half of Denver to report in) AND Kerry holds onto Wisconsin, we're down to one state, surrounded in a quagmire of lawsuits, deciding everything.
Now, Kerry having WI AND either CO, HI, or AK, leads to a definite win with between 272 and 277 possible, but CO is going to be tough and I personally wouldn't bet on it (actually just since i typed it, Bush's lead in the counting jumped and MSNBC just called it), nor Alaska given that there are more people who think there will be jobs and money if big oil gets their way against the environmentally conscience. Hawaii is hard to tell in that neither candidate had more than 50% (or actually more than 46%) in the last pre-election polls.
--
updated numbers (12:45am):
Bush -- 246 + 5 (NM) + 3 (AK) = 254 -- Ohio makes his win a given.
Kerry -- 206 + 34 (IA, MN, MI) = 240 -- Ohio brings him to 260, meaning he needs 3 of the 4 states he's leading in but its too close to call: HI (4), NV (5), NH (4), WI (10) will bring him up to 263
and that's that. Bush wins with OH, *or* he needs WI and two other small states that kerry's leading in...
HOWEVER, THE TIE IS STILL POSSIBLE: Bush getting WI + only NV only gets him 269, and if OH to Kerry, and it all goes to the House.
at any rate, its still like I quoted a 'Post editorial 5 months ago: sit down, shut up, and watch Ohio pick the president.
